By Zablon Oyugi, October 25, 2024, The global greenhouse gas emissions have soared to a record high of 57.1 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2023 amid stalled progress by countries in cutting emissions and tackling global warming, according to a new UN Environment Programme (UNEP) report.
In this, nations must collectively commit to cutting 42 per cent off annual greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and 57 per cent by 2035 in the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – and back this up with rapid action – or the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal will be gone within a few years.
Updated NDCs are to be submitted early next year ahead of the COP30 climate talks in Brazil.
The UNEP report, Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air … please!, finds that a failure to increase ambition in these new NDCs and start delivering immediately would put the world on course for a temperature increase of 2.6-3.1°C over the course of this century. This would bring debilitating impacts to people, planet and economies.
The 2.6°C scenario is based on the full implementation of current unconditional and conditional NDCs. Implementing only current unconditional NDCs would lead to 2.8°C of warming. Continuing with current policies only would lead to 3.1°C of warming. Under these scenarios – which all operate on a probability of over 66 per cent – temperatures would continue to rise into the next century. Adding additional net-zero pledges to full implementation of unconditional and conditional NDCs could limit global warming to 1.9°C, but there is currently low confidence in the implementation of these net-zero pledges.
“The emissions gap is not an abstract notion,” said António Guterres, UN Secretary-General, in a video message on the report. “There is a direct link between increasing emissions and increasingly frequent and intense climate disasters. Around the world, people are paying a terrible price. Record emissions mean record sea temperatures supercharging monster hurricanes; record heat is turning forests into tinder boxes and cities into saunas; record rains are resulting in biblical floods.
“Today’s Emissions Gap report is clear: we’re playing with fire; but there can be no more playing for time. We’re out of time. Closing the emissions gap means closing the ambition gap, the implementation gap, and the finance gap. Starting at COP29.”
2035 – the new milestone year
The report also looks at what it would take to get on track to limiting global warming to below 2°C. For this pathway, emissions must fall 28 per cent by 2030 and 37 per cent from 2019 levels by 2035 – the new milestone year to be included in the next NDCs.
“Climate crunch time is here. We need global mobilization on a scale and pace never seen before – starting right now, before the next round of climate pledges – or the 1.5°C goal will soon be dead and well below 2°C will take its place in the intensive care unit,” said Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP. “I urge every nation: no more hot air, please. Use the upcoming COP29 talks in Baku, Azerbaijan, to increase action now, set the stage for stronger NDCs, and then go all-out to get on a 1.5°C pathway.
“Even if the world overshoots 1.5°C – and the chances of this happening are increasing every day – we must keep striving for a net-zero, sustainable and prosperous world. Every fraction of a degree avoided counts in terms of lives saved, economies protected, damages avoided, biodiversity conserved and the ability to rapidly bring down any temperature overshoot.”
Cutting emissions
The 57.1 gigatons global greenhouse gas emissionslast year requires steep cuts—7.5% annually by 2035 for 1.5°C and 4% for 2°C. Although 1.5°C remains technically feasible, achieving it requires cutting emissions by up to 31 gigatons in 2030 and 41 gigatons in 2035, primarily through solar, wind, and forest preservation.
Meeting COP28 targets will demand a six-fold increase in mitigation investments and a whole-of-government approach. G20 nations, responsible for 77% of emissions, must take the lead with ambitious actions, while strong international support and climate finance will be crucial for equitable progress.
